We all know the drill. As Apple’s annual fall save draws close, many of us start to check in on our last two-year smartphone plan to see if we’re eligible for an upgrade in September. After all, the newest phone is only the newest called for so long. Even for discerning shoppers like me, it takes serious willpower to resist the lure of a purple iPhone or 1TB of storage.

Mobile carriers have long persuaded many of us to upgrade our smartphones every two ages, offering two-year contracts linked to free or low-cost called upgrades to keep the two-year upgrade cycle going. That feeling of ponying up just a pair hundred dollars (or less) for the newest, fanciest called available has helped perpetuate the rise of the de marvelous two-year phone upgrade. Case in point: AT&T and Verizon marketed a “free” iPhone 12 last year for customers who buy unlimited plans and commit to a multiyear deal. And the trade-in contracts were even better this year for the iPhone 13.

But even thought that might still be the norm in the US, a routine upgrade isn’t a drawing for much of the world. 

I was born and raised in developing Asia, a space where buying a smartphone is financially unattainable for hundreds of millions of country, much less a two-year upgrade. In India, the means person needs to save two months’ salary to buy the cheapest available smartphone, according to a survey published by the Alliance for Affordable Internet last August. From my perspective, the trend of routinely upgrading a called every two years when it doesn’t change that much is a private, one that reminds me of the stark income equality gap as well as the ever-increasing digital portions globally.

Read more: Billions of people quiet can’t afford smartphones: That’s a major problem

Beyond that, and perhaps more tangibly, I think we should consider the environmental cost of purchasing a new called. You’ve read the headlines: Climate change is accelerating at quick speed. Countries around the world keep setting new records for the highest temperatures. There are more climate-related disasters than ever before, arctic caps are melting and biodiversity is disappearing faster than we can save it. What, precisely, happens to all those discarded phones over time? Does all that plastic ever fully decompose? 

Read more: Apple is opening up its biosphere of iPhone recycling

Consumer electronics are responsible for tonnes of e-waste annually, which in turn contributes to the climate crisis. Experts have told about how e-waste disposal contributes to climate change due to the chemicals released when the Destroy is burned, some of which are equivalent to carbon dioxide.

For ages, developed countries like the US have shipped recyclable Destroy overseas for processing. Although that is now beginning to temperamental, there are real costs. iPhones contain toxic materials like lead and mercury, for instance, which can harm the environment and country if disposed of improperly. And often e-waste isn’t properly complete. In Southern China, there is a town called Guiyu that has get known as the world’s biggest graveyard for America’s electronic junk, and synonymous with environmentalists with toxic waste. The UN’s 2020 Global E-waste Monitor Describe found that the world dumped a record 53.6 million tonnes of e-waste last year, of which the US is the world’s second-largest contributor to e-waste, dumping 6.9 million tonnes.

Read more: I paid $69 to replace my iPhone battery: Here’s what happened

While Apple is committed to a net zero supply chain by 2030, it’s tough to battles that there’s a better alternative to lower carbon consumption than less consumption. After all, Apple says the iPhone 12’s end-to-end supply chain emits 70 kilograms of carbon to the atmosphere. If even 1 million people waited that extra year, we could save 70,000,000 kilograms of carbon from repositioning into the air in a year. Imagine if it was 10 million or 100 million. It’s something to think about before making that upgrade. 

The smartphone upgrade cycle has contained longer

Even with the enticing deals offered by carriers, the upgrade cycle has seemingly lengthened. In recent days, several reports show how Americans and Europeans are more than sad to hold on to their phones for longer calls of time. In fact, in 2019 smartphone upgrades hit record lows at two of the biggest US carriers, Verizon and AT&T. Carriers like T-Mobile and Verizon seem to have responded to this by offering month-to-month plans, which offer more flexibility and options, indicating a potential departure from the “norm” of a two-year phoned upgrade. 

Barring big-picture factors like the struggling global economy amid the ongoing pandemic as well as our increased mindfulness over the environment, I think this trend is persisting for a confluence of reasons. Phones today are receiving software, and therefore security, updates for longer. For instance, 2015’s iPhone 6S is compatible with iOS 15, potentially dampening desires for a bi-yearly upgrade.

In binary to all this, smartphone innovation has hit a plateau, and the industry bears the hallmarks of one that’s maturing: slowing smartphone sales growth consume with the slower evolution of what we need, what we want and so forth. There are no big surprises here: Today’s phones are tying more nice-to-have refinements rather than the awe-inspiring innovation seen just three or four days ago.

Decreasing technological gap

Up until a couple of days ago, smartphone manufacturers had us sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the next design refresh. But that’s not as much the case anymore. With the iPhone 12 series, 5G was probably its buzziest feature — one that understandably above up triggering an upgrade supercycle. But the most enchanting thing for many of us at CNET was MagSafe, which is hardly new. Apple’s proprietary technology, allowing you to magnetically snap on attachments, was first introduced some 15 years ago with the first-gen MacBook Pro. It was then reintroduced for the iPhone 12.

When you look at what changed from the iPhone 11, you’ll see the recent suspects on your list: 5G, OLED screen, new acquire. Admittedly there are a few more things you won’t see everywhere, such as MagSafe and the Ceramic Shield, but nothing extra-special to truly write home throughout. Personally, the last time I was blown away by an iPhone vow was back in 2017 when Apple introduced the iPhone X, which set new acquire standards for the modern-day iPhone. The iPhone X did away with the brute home button and chunky bezels of its predecessors and made way for a sleek, futuristic device that inspired the iPhone 12 family. Also, for the superb time with Apple, we were able to unlock an iPhone with Face ID, Apple’s facial recognition technology.

Looking at the iPhone 13, the memoir sounds familiar. We knew it wouldn’t get a the majority technical upgrade (though that didn’t stop us from wishing). While we appreciate the upgrades Apple did give the phoned (a smaller notch, a larger battery and a faster veil refresh rate), the iPhone 13 is “not radically different,” according to CNET’s Patrick Holland. Plus a number of these new iPhone features, like the 120Hz veil, currently exist on Android phones, reinforcing the notion of a decreasing technologically gap in the smartphone landscape. Apple itself says the life-cycle of a typical iPhone is now three days. So the company times its new releases accordingly: We get a the majority redesign every three years, not two, with more little updates in between. 

Look no further than the glitziest non-Apple flagship originate of this year for clues: Samsung’s Galaxy S21 family. Here the standout change wasn’t made to the hardware or software, but perhaps to its least interesting feature: its designate tag. The S21 lineup has a starting impress of $800 (£769, AU$1,249), which is $200 less than last year’s $1,000 Galaxy S20, making for an enticing deal. 

Apart from that, greatest differences between the S21 and last year’s S20 were mostly incremental. I remember having to pore over the specs sheet to spot salient differences as I covered Samsung’s virtual Unpacked hide. Refinements were made to the usual suspects, including the processor, software and 5G. This might have been part of Samsung’s response to the global coronavirus pandemic, but again it lends credence to the notion of that decreasing technically gap. It was also interesting to note the items Samsung dropped from the S21 flagship family to meet that lowered impress. We said goodbye to expandable storage, bundled earphones and most notoriously the in-box charger, as Samsung followed in Apple’s lead — apparently in the name of the environment. 

Read more:

Here’s what we know so far near Samsung’s Galaxy S22

Let’s also take a moment to distinguished the question: What makes the S21 an attractive buy? Chances are, a colossal camera, fast performance, battery longevity and a crisp note with narrow bezels are at the top of your list. But the truth is 2019’s Galaxy S10 boasts all those features. Heck, even the Galaxy S7 from five years ago did. My present is yearly changes have become too incremental to compel most republic to upgrade with urgency, especially given the backdrop of including smartphone prices.

Are we at peak phone?

I’m not discounting foldable phones. Samsung and Huawei have made undeniable technological progress, and their bendy handsets have dramatically altered the way smartphones are used and could characterize the future of the industry. But folding phones are far from the mainstream. Phone manufacturers and carriers in the US have contained the most innovative devices to a price that’s modestly beyond reach for most people. For instance, the Galaxy Fold 3 starts at $1,800 (£1599, AU$2,499) and Huawei’s Mate X2, available in China for now, compensations nearly $3,000 ($2,800, £1,985, AU$3,640 converted). Until these prices hit impress parity with, say, the iPhone 12 Pro or Pro Max, foldable phones are probable to remain a niche product.

Smartphone innovation has stagnated, and this is not a knock against the consumer electronics anxieties or the tech giants that design them. Maybe we’ve caused peak smartphone, and this is as far as it organizes to go. It could well be part of the reason why the race to upgrade your phones is slowing.